The Policy of The International by Bakunin Mikhail

By Bakunin Mikhail

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Clearly, at+j (j=1,2) and εt are correlated. Furthermore, the composite error term is serially correlated, having moving average error. Methods normally applied to deal with these problems involve the use of instrumental variables (IV), giving consistent parameter estimates, together with a correction to the variance—covariance matrix to ensure valid inference (see Cuthbertson, Hall and Taylor 1992, for a short review). The alternative assumes that there is a model determining the expected variables, which may be estimated jointly with the structural model (15).

The alternative, keeping Π in the model, but dropping liquidity (L) is also rejected, but less strongly than the previous case. So the tests are not conclusive as between the choice between liquidity and profitability. They clearly reject the use of relative factor prices. So where does that leave us? We conclude that a parsimonious model for the level of investment, based on output, profitability and liquidity is the preferred version according to our results. We will use this long run result in the dynamic model which follows.

We also find a significant role for liquidity constraints, and in all equations there is support for a unit elasticity for output in the long-run, so we would expect investment to rise broadly in line with GDP, in the absence of major shifts in profitability. Admittedly recent investment performance in the manufacturing sector is more of a problem. Here, the puzzling phenomenon is the sharp drop in manufacturing investment in the first half of 1996. The model including expected output and other variables are only suggestive at this stage.

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